Bitcoin Market Commentary June 5, 2019

The Trading Daily Market Commentary features a summary of selected market segments as well as economic matters. Its content of interest is made available to all traders and investors at large

Is Bitcoin, back! Many die-hards believe it is. The coin has staged an essential recovery from its 2018 crash. From a level of about $4,000 in March this year, Bitcoin had a two-day price spike of 23% on April 1 from $4,135  to  $5,102.

Then the coin went sideways in the $5,000 - $6,000 range till the early part of May, when it set another three-day rally of 22% on May 8 from $5,932 to $7,255 - By May 30 in the morning session, it towered even higher, to just over $9,000.

This coin rally was the best price achievement ever since its downfall from $20,000 level in December of 2018 to low of $3,128. That crash recorded the destruction of the most significant asset price bubble in recent history, even more, then the Tulipmania of 1637.

The big questions for crypto investors and traders are what prompted the latest rebound in the price of the coin and how long will it last? Is this the spring of a new massive-rally or just another price incline and manipulation? Has anything fundamentally changed?

Bitcoin And Technical Analysts

Indeed, Bitcoin technical analysts (TA) are out in might telling us how the 100 and 200-day moving averages (MA) bestowing a bullish clue. They are also enthusiastic about adding that the 30-day MA is getting stronger, which is another bullish clue.

Our opinion is that the conventional TA applied to the crypto-coin is foolishness. There, however, are two main reasons for this. The first take is that there is zero, zilch to analyze except the price action itself. When you watch at TA applied to Forex, commodities, stocks, and bonds or some other tradeable assets, there is an underlying asset or some story rooted within the price.

Crude oil prices might be affected by geopolitical worries related to Iran or Venezuela. Fake news related to demographics might influence bond prices. So, in both cases, the price action reveals real-world facts. TA is solely an exercise to analyze price shifts into coherent predictive analytics.

Many claim that Bitcoin is real money; some will state that it is just a digital record; However, we are highly skeptical that the coin fits the basic fundamental definition of money.

Never the less, the coin does not reveal national economic strength, corporate assets, energy demand, terms of commerce, or any of the infinite facts by which many other asset prices are assessed. TA is insignificant whenever the price itself is unimportant concerning any assets, goods, services, or other applications.

Our additional reason for renouncing the use of conventional TA is that it has ill predictive value when utilized to tangible assets and no predictive value at all what so ever when applied to the coin.

If you follow conventional TA, you will notice that every "incorrect" forecast is succeeded quickly by a new TA in which a "double top" simply presages a "triple top" and so on and on it goes.

Of course, TA can help interpret where the given price has been and aid with comparable value analysis, although its predictive analytic significance is very low, with exception to the extent the TA itself where creates self-fulfilling prophesies within herd action. Thus what can we convey from the most recent crypto coin price rally?

The first important fact is that no one really knows why it occurred. There was no brand-new technological discovery in Bitcoin mining. None of the scalability, as well as sustainability difficulties, have been resolved. Hacks and fraud remain to be present on a virtually daily basis.

In summary, it is business as usual in the coin market without any new grounds for optimism or pessimism.

As The Markets Turn

Wall Street had a reasonably powerful bounce back yesterday, experiencing its second-highest point gain this year. Bargain hunting added to the strong rebound, with traders and investors picking up stocks at discounted levels after the recent weakness. Read - gunning the shorts.

The significant crypto coins are at a dire short-term position after two days of severe selling force, like the Bitcoin, and few others are at the fundamental support level that we showed out on recent chart analysis June 1. 

Elsewhere, buckle up, people, because there have been only three other times in recent history where Gold rose while crude oil fell.


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