Market Insight & Commentary August 4, 2019

The Trading Daily Market Commentary features a summary of selected market segments as well as economic matters. Its content of interest is made available to all traders and investors at large

With the stock market heading into this week action, investors and traders already understood it was going to be a memorable event as quarterly earning reports were in full force. 

Equities finish much lower after one-two punch with a majority of its losses coming from Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and President Trump threating China with more tariffs. 

Investors and traders were also analyzing a closely observed Labor Department job news showing American labor growth stalled in July though came in line with many economist estimations. 

North American stock market dropped this week’s with DJI, broad-based S&P500, and the NASDAQ Composite pulling back 707.44 or 2.6%,  93.81 or 3.1%, and  326.14 or 3.9% respectively. Russell 2000 index also had weak showing posting minus 45.31 or 2.9%.

All main Asian-Pacific region and Eurozone stock markets lost ground in the light of trade wars and softer economic numbers. Among the unexpected news, was the falling of the German confidence, French Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was much slower than anticipated, and Japanese Industrial Production (JIP) saw a significant drop. 

The S&P500 touched our Mean Sup 2014. The lower-range closure sets the stage for a steady to higher advancement towards the Key Res 3026 and Inner Index Rally 3040, and ultimately to the Outer Index Rally 3125 (The sixth phase). Currently, there is an additional significant support level: the Key Sup 2882.

Gold and Silver market

Gold and Silver market continue to display all of the underlying characteristics one watches for in a markets which is firmly embedded in a rally to higher pricing levels. 

Gold after its extraordinary run on Thursday that began at the Key Sup $1405 level and ended just short of Key Res $1447, while Silver had big jump coming off Mean Sup $15.95 price.

Take a look at how the Gold prices respected our Inner Gold Rally envelope. It was Federal Reserve announcement that led it back into our Key Sup $1405 price, however, the day after, the Gold gave Federal Reserve the finger and came right back up once again.

Gold’s and sharp Silver shift in direction on Thursday and Friday serves as a hint that its established safe-haven appeal is gaining ground amongst investors and traders.

Keep a vigilant eye on Silver’s breakout toward completed Inner Silver Rally $16.54 and Outer Silver Rally $16.95 - Silver should trade abruptly higher.

Currency market

An appreciating U.S. Dollar is giving nothing but misery and punishment for the Euro Dollar which is currently trading near a 2019 low at 1.11.

The EUR/USD pair is in a heavily bearish state on the daily charts as there have been steady to lower progress since Jan 25, and completing  Inner Currency Dip $1.1035 and Outer Currency Dip $1.1038 - marked since Feb 16, 2018.  

With the Euro Dollar fundamentally bearish due to an economic situation in Eurozone and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) approach, the current action path is expected to retest the Mean Res $1.1156, and Key Sup $1.1077 - To be determined in the next couple trading sessions.

Traders and investors must continue to scrutinize the price behaver at the current level carefully. The maintained bearish course might take the currency to Key Sup $1.1077 and then open a path towards Mean Res $1.1156 and possibly Key Res $1.1275 in the near term.

Bitcoin market

The crypto, and primarily Bitcoin, did head for another bullish close as stated on Market Insight & Commentary July 28, 2019.

All the significant coins endured a hit in U.S. trading session, with especially Litecoin losing ground leading into the weekend. 

The leading crypto hit our Mean Res $10,800 and is vulnerable to pull-back to Maginot $10,000 and Mean Sup $9,370 level and holding on to its most recent gains while floating above the $10,000 price line.

Bitcoin is now the single coin with a possibility of establishing a medium-term uptrend; however, given the segment-wide weakness, the whole outlook is far from being overtly bullish. 

The leading coin is still well below the July 10 swing high at $13.202, never the less it remains above $10,000, and well clear of the lower side of the current uptrend range that emerged following the recent fall.

Below Maginot $10,000 support is found near the completed Inner Coin Dip $9,422 with further Inner Coin Dip #1, #2, and Key Sup $7,620 resting below, while resistance price levels are now ahead at Mean Res $11,800 and Key Res marked at $12,930.


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