Market Trend Commentary & Analysis September 29, 2019

Stock market ends the week lower, undermined by negative-sounding news headlines, related to trade and geopolitics, following the news that the Trump administration is contemplating restricting American investment in China and delist Chinese all companies from American exchanges.

The headlines eradicated an early session 0.3% winnings in the S&P 500 index, which then declined as much as 1.1% among a multitude of concerns, which introduced a re-escalation of tensions, with apparent retaliation from China, and trade negotiation which were planned for October 10-11 most likely will be canceled. 

The nine of the eleven S&P 500 index sectors ended in the red, driven lower by the trade-sensitive companies, and heavily-weighted, information technology market sector posting -1.3%. Semiconductor stock companies such as Micron Technology, Inc. which lost -5.39, or -11.1% were especially vulnerable.

For the week the DJI Average declined merely 0.4% with Year To Date (YTD) +15%, but the broader S&P 500 index slid -1.0% (YTD +18.1%). Technology heavy weighted Nasdaq Composite index -2.2% (YTD +19.7%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 -2.5% (YTD +12.7%) posted sizable losses.

Technical Analysis and Outlook

S&P500 closed lower on Sep 27, and by doing so, continuing to linger above reversed Mean Sup 2960. The steady to higher mode is in the cards; however, possible take-down might take place before Phase 8 rally materializes.

Fiat currency market

The U.S. Dollar's trade-weighted index is climbing and challenges the Outer Index Rally $99.27 level. If it breaks higher convincingly, the index should have enough energy to contest the next Outer Index Rally 101, and possibly beyond.

The Sterling continues to be steady to low, closing down slightly below the 1.23 level to our Mean Sup $1.2290 as flagged on September 21st chart. As it looks at this point GBP/USD, is going to find a bit of bid, as it was reasonably significant support previously. 

A possible Sterling bounce from here is to cash out on some profits, though at the end of the day we still have a lot of downsides to go - Inner Currency Dip $1.2177. Thus it is hard to imagine a situation where it is easy to own British Pound for any period, particularly against the U.S. Dollar.

Cryptocurrency

All leading cryptos are stagnated at post time, as the consequences of the recent plunge continue to govern trading in the crypto segment. 

The high-strung post-crash consolidation was not enough to change the technical overview in the state of the major crypto coins; however, for now, continual leg lower in the down-trend has been evaded by bulls.

Bitcoin has been one of the most vulnerable among the leading coins ever since the beginning of last week's mini-crash, and it continues to be prone to another breakdown, mainly due to the proximity to Mean Sup $7,620 and Inner Coin Dip $7,474. 

Without the doubt, he Bitcoin is under apparent selling pressure, and a movement below $7,474 looks likely to follow if the TSS market trend ending confirmation symbol (BARC) is not affirmed: the initial fundamental resistance level being in the upper $8,000 the price zone marked at Mean Res $8,850.

Gold and Silver market

Gold and Silver market sold-off on Friday's session, taking both metals to the lower end of the current significant support levels, which has been in place in the middle of the month. 

Be aware it's also the third quarter-end, a time when the vest bullion banks do play their games to produce favorable MTM (Mark-To-Market) prices. For the week, Gold slipped $26 to finish at $1,497, and over the same period, Silver dropped $1.07 to close at $17.53.

Never the less we should anticipate the price consolidation to last a couple of weeks, with the Gold metal prices possibly (however not necessarily) sliding lower below Maginot line $1,475 to the Gold Dip $1,455. 

The Silver metal might penetrate the $17.50 Maginot price as well as to test the Mean Sup $16.90 level, considering the negativity from the breakdown of the repo (Repurchase) market continues.


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